tv Varney Company FOX Business November 5, 2012 9:20am-11:00am EST
president and his challenger in a statistical dead heat. we will bring you the latest fresh out of the box day before polls coming to you shortly. big city newspapers, obama. small town papers, romney. establishment tv? well, they favor obama big time, no surprise there. in pennsylvania, tens of thousands brave a very cold night to cheer mitt romney. late sunday night, thousands more keep the enthusiasm level up for him in virginia. in new jersey and new york, millions are still reeling or feeling the pain. the president's post storm glow appears to have ended. this is the day before america decides what kind of a country we want. it is a stark choice and "varney & company" about to begin. ♪ [ male announcer ] is is karen anjeremiah. they don't know it yet, but they' gonna fall in love, get married, ve a couple of kids, [ children laughing ] move to the country, and live a long, happy life together where they almost never fight about money.
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clear idea who is going to win. i've got an opinion, but it's just that, it's an opinion. all the polls had the two candidates in a dead heat. president obama has a one point lead and the wall street journal poll. the daily tracking poll a tie. and the abc news poll president obama a one point lead and the biggest spread from pew research. obama 48, mitt romney 45. that's a lot of polls, a lot of numbers, but the big take away at this, the race at this point is too close to call, it's one day away. now to the storm, one week after. there are 1.4 million homes still in the dark across the northeast, that's a very large number. gas lines seem to be easing a little, but the commute into new york city is not. the governors of neighboring states, new jersey, new york, may have different solutions to their gas problem, in new jersey, chris christie started rationing, using odd and even numbered license plates to ease
the lines. and in new york, andrew cuomo had a free gas plan that turned into an absolute fiasco and long lines and that plan is quickly abandoned. more on that later this hour. don't forget, facebook is always open to you, for your comments and actions and opinions, and it's an active conversation, join in, please, big day today. and now this, the washington redskins lost to the carolina panthers yesterday. and here is why we're bringing you the story. if the redskins win their last home game before a presidential election, the incumbent party keeps the white house, if the redskins lose, so does the incumbent held true for the 17 of the last 18 presidential elections and this result yesterday points to a mitt romney victory. we're just one day away from the most critical presidential election in an entire generation, and it's a dead heat in the late polls. as we head to the opening bell listen to mitt romney light up the crowd in pennsylvania last night. >> now.
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crowd is, but we can tell that it's an enthusiastic crowd and let me remind you last night in pennsylvania in the open air and very cold night, mitt romney drew well over 20,000 people. he then went to virginia and late at night, sunday night, he drew 3,000 in virginia. right now, that's mitt romney live in orlando, florida. he just said, we are one day away from a fresh start. that's what mitt romney has had to say. listen in for a second. >> tomorrow we begin a new tomorrow. god bless you all. god bless florida. god bless orlando. we're going to take back this country and make it strong and proud and prosperous. thank you so very much. thank you guys. thank you. >> and he just wrapped up his speech in time for you to bring the opening bell on wall street. as we approach this trading session, the day before the great election, we're expecting a pretty flat opening. in fact, we're not expecting
stocks to do that much today. we've seen a big move in the the price of gold, down. it's well below $1700 an ounce. if you look carefully at the big board, look who is ringing the bell. i think we can just make him out there. that's our own charlie gasparino, fox business network, helping to ring the opening bell on wall street this morning. there you have it. the market is now open, this is election eve. where are we going today? it looks like this market will start out right around 13,000 in the election period. so, we're down 14, 15 points in the early going. 13,078 is where we are. 13,000, this will be the benchmark from which to judge the election results and its impact on stocks. we've got general motors, sometimes called government motors, it may be alive, but toyota just raised its forecast and reported its profit, tripled from a year ago. so first stock of the day, toyota, nicole? >> that's right, let's take a
look at-- it's looking higher, right and lifted their outlook and cutting costs to offset what they've been seeing, weaker demand for china. good news for toyota motors, stuart. stuart: it has nothing to do with the election except that toyota is on the way back, and general motors, the highlight of the election maybe is not. let's get to netflix because i think that stock, not sharply lower, is it? >> netflix is a story developing from last week, and remember, carl icahn released that he has, and changes to be made. netflix adopted the poison pill a way that the company can dilute the shares and get less likely or difficult for acquirer to step in and take over. stuart: thanks so much, nicole. in the first minute and a half of business, 23 points, i'm calling this a flat election eve market. we're keeping a close eye on gas prices and this was a factor, i believe, in the election, some negative feeling toward the president earlier, but look at
it now. gas prices have fallen sharply, we're down to 3.47 a gallon for regular, 4.03 for diesel. if you look at the trend, gas prices are down 33 cents over the past month. still, it's a very high level, historically very high, but down 33 cents for the month. we keep telling you, it's election eve. both candidates making the final push in the swing state today. mitt romney spoke to a packed orlando crowd just a few moments ago. >> the question of this election, really comes down to this, do the people of america wants four more years like the last four years. >> or do you want real change finally? finally? >> one more day, one more day. >> and not four more years, i think they're saying. >> four years i think they were saying. >> and romney in new jersohio w
rock and iowa before returning, the president to chicago tonight. and again, we bring you mitt romney. >> and that's why together we're taking back america and give america the hope of the year in specifically. thank you so much, great to be with you. thank you. >> now, the president's campaign is saying that romney's push into pennsylvania is a desperate attempt to find another way to 270 electoral votes. meanwhile, the president is facing some criticism for this comment that he made in ohio over the weekend. >> and at the time the republican congress, any senate candidate by the name of mitt romney, no, no, no, don't boo, vote. vote. voting is the best revenge. stuart: ooh, voting is the best revenge. well, look, if you're an investor you want to know what
kind of economy will be coming our way for the next four years, joining us now is president of let voters decide, travis brown. all right, travis, i say this is a clear choice. he's not hearing me, you can tell. when a man has his head bow, he's not in prayer, he doesn't hear me introducing him. he does now, do you hear me. >> we had the wrong shot, showing the wrong person, you heard me. look, i say that this election is a very clear choice, america has exceptional and unique, versus america like europe. what kind of america do you want, travis brown? >> well, there's no doubt the america that i want and many people that are responsible for our job growth, our economic vitality want an exceptional america, there's no doubt that we know policies that work versus those that do not and i think the reason you're seeing such a large base election today, tonight, tomorrow,
through tomorrow night is because americans want to return to an exceptional america. stuart: now, i know what the polls are saying, but i'm going to ask all of our guests on the program, each and every one of them. i want you to call the election, not who you want to win, but tell me and our viewers, who do you think wins tomorrow? >> i'm going to stay with the redskins forecast, i think there will be change. you're seeing intensity, the early turnout in ohio and you're seeing the flip of momentum in states like florida, but i think it will be a close one. stuart: okay. now, i want the impact on the electorate, for investors. let's suppose that president obama wins a second term. i want you to tell me what you think happens to the stock market. >> well, i think the issue we have right now with congressional gridlock and wide differences of opinion result in a lot of uncertainty, that uncertainty is currently built in to all the information in the
markets, in the form of perceived or real tax increases, so, that's in part why i think you're seeing in some cases record earnings, but no additional productivity or major investment. if we hold with the incumbent, i think that may continue to flatten, or deepen the trough. if we see a change, then i think you could see an immediate reaction, that there will be correction because you're essentially saying to congress, we'd like to take off these future tax increases, therefore, increase the rate on return on future investments. stuart: you think this is all about taxes, president obama wins a second term, taxes hiked on the rich. president, if it becomes president obama-- president romney you think that tax cuts are in order. so to you, the key issue is the level of taxation of personal income, is that right? >> that's exactly right. we have to correct our, our spending problem in washington in part through the tax code.
i think that everybody understands the tax cliff is a very real fiscal cliff. the end of this year, we have a lot of responsibility. it's going to take leadership, real bipartisan leadership to work our way through, but you can see the model for progress of what's been working and what has not been working within the tax regimes of our states, you have states like florida that continue to do better. in states like california that are now threatened with exact same spending problems that we've seen in washington. stuart: travis brown, ma pleasure indeed, you're the first guest on the show and you called it for romney. you're on videotape. thank you very much. new at 10 we will get the latest poll from maris and rasmussen reports. it's a dead heat with the other polls with less than a day to go. at the top of the hour, a fresh look at the race with the very latest polls, fresh out of the box this morning. don't forget tomorrow there will be two servings of "varney & company," we will be on at our
regular time. 9:20 a.m. eastern and then back tomorrow night for a "varney & company" special election edition, 5 p.m. eastern, please don't miss it, all-star lineup for you. back to the column, apple says it virtually sold out of the ipad mini, 3 million sold, really? >> here is the thing. 3 million ipads sold over three days, however, they're not breaking whether it was ipad mini or the original ipad or the ipad 3 or the 2 or whatever, okay? all we know 3 million ipads in three days, doesn't sound too crummy, right? what we're hearing from tim cook,'s saying the launch for the ipad mini was a record weekend and incredible demand and trying to ramp up demand in order to meet demand. that sounds pretty good. stuart: so you've got the what, a $10 bounce for apple on this monday morning. >> that's a good start, but that's not $700 the middle of september. >> we're at 586, yeah, 114, $115
down from a few weeks ago. however, i'm sure you'll be tracking it, nicole petallides. >> no doubt. stuart: we thank you very much. the dow down 31 on this election morning. and time is money, here is what else we've got. and home owners in damaged towns on the jersey shore are worried about looters n times like these, people. the need to protect themselves and their property and how about the 2nd amendment now? the judge is with us on that. if mitt romney wins na could mean huge momentum for the republicans in the house and the senate as well. we'll talk to democrat representative peter welch about that. on my take today, it's all about why i left europe and that is coming up in our next hour. we want to hear from you, send your e-mails right now to email@example.com, we'll try to read some of them on the air. all right, it's monday morning, election eve. here are the seven early movers, grand ole opry parent, ryman
hospitality declared a special dividend of 6.84 a share and it's up 44 cents better than expected profit in the oil rig operator transocean and that's up two bucks. and electricity producer southern company reports less money coming in, revenues down, stocks down 73 cents. not much. ryanair, the ultimate in low cost air travel, especially europe raises its outlook and profits are up 10% and the stock is up 3%. profit disappoints at the power company entergy, operate a lot of nuclear plants, down a buck 70. and toyota their quarterly profit tripled and it raised its forecast for the future nice gain to toyota 3% higher at 80. the natural gas producer, third quarter loss widened and the market doesn't like that, it's down. and the dow industrials, pretty flat election eve, down 25. that's it. one of the companies that made out big before and during
hurricane sandy, generac, they make generators, big ones. i bought one. and don't tell that charles payne didn't give us a heads up. >> and they've got briggs & stratton, but if you want the real one, the mack daddy you hook up to the natural gas line the one your lights are on and neighbor's are off and everyone is jealous and costs you a lot of money. generac is good. [ male announcer ] how do you trade? with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips.
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they had a huge rally once the market reopened on wednesday of last week. the company makes generators that many people now wish they had before this power outage. joining me now is the the ceo of generac, his name aaron ja jahrfeld. welcome to the program. i'm going to you a commercial, i bought a generac generator, had it installed three months ago and kicked in as soon as the power went out in new jersey, and it worked like a charm and expensive, but the best investment i ever made. are you okay with this. i'm perfectly okay with that. your story is not unlike the stories that we keep hearing back, stuart, a lot of people used our product. the product that you bought in particular, is a relatively new category of product in the last ten years and only 2 1/2% of u.s. households have a fully automatic stationary generator
that runs off natural gas or propane. stuart: so your potential market is huge. and for investors and people are interested in this, i tell me i've got a few short questions, how many of your generators are now on order? >> well, the order rate has picked up dramatically as you can imagine since the events. stuart: how many? >> due to the fact that we see-- >> i don't have exact numbers as a public company we've got to be careful giving forward guidance, but definitely in the thousands and something that we see around events like this the next 6 to 12 months are going to be strong in demand. stuart: can you make them fast enough and up your production line? >> we're increasing capacity with supply chain as well as our manufacturing capacity here in wisconsin where the units are made. and we'll be in very good shape to take care of that demand going into 2013. stuart: are you going to outsource any of the production, can i see a generac generator made in china, likely? >> no, not the products, not the
automatic home stand by generators we're proud to build those in wisconsin and where they'll be built going forward. stuart: are you putting your prices up. full disclosure, $22,000 out the door fully installed for that generator at my house, is that normal? >> the entry level products start less than $1800, actually so the larger the home, the larger requirements, if you want to back up the entire house other than just a couple of things around the house, a sump pump or the lights. of course if you're trying to back up an entire home the prices can get higher. stuart: they do indeed. now, on the election, do you favor obama or romney? >>. >> well, obviously, we favor whatever administration is going to be more pro business. stuart: which one is that going to be? who is more likely-- >> it's likely to be romney, the romney-ryan ticket, ryan from janesville, wisconsin probably a little bit after hometown feel
for that, but we believe that there's certainly a lot of policy related issues around tax policies in particular ap change going forward. stuart: would you call it for romney right now? >> i wouldn't in the state of wisconsin i think it's pretty much a dead heat and sounds like based on the polls i've seen this morning it's preety darn close all across america. stuart: aaron, we do appreciate you being with us today and congratulations on being in a true growth business. we like it. thanks very much, sir. >> thank you, stuart. stuart: time for your gold report at 9:49 eastern, we're at $1681 an ounce, way below $1700. dropped down there on friday. people in new york and new jersey still struggling with long gas lines after sandy. both governors, chris christie and andrew cuomo took emergency action, but only one response worked. liz macdonald and charles payne are on the way in and they'll tell you why free gas is not necessarily a good thing. that's next.
and comments. >> independents, the votes-- >> the rasmussen poll. >> wall street journal nbc poll. >> the rasmussen poll. but you want to talk independents and cnn poll, a gigantic gap for romney on independents. >> i've got to say that the ras rasmussen poll suggesting that romney more momentum. charles: and images from sandy aren't helping the president anymore, hurting him. stuart: look at this, two states, new york and new jersey, two separate responses to the gas line problem. okay? and first of all, we had chris christie. >> talking about new york. >> and fema came to me and said that they wanted to give away free gas and i told them no. they said, well, we'll take your gas back if you we don't give it away for free. because i was not going to set up the mayhem in new jersey that they had across the river. i said no, and we worked it out and fema is not distributing
that to gas stations. >> that's chris christie, talking about the odd-even gas line for license plates, contrast that within new york, governor cuomo accepted the free gas idea, created an absolute frenzy, total chaos, long lines and they dropped the whole thing, so, i guess, charles, free gas is not always good gas. it's the exact opposite than the friday discussion on the price gouging, a lot of the large elements to this is panic and free gas to it, and it makes it worse. >> and dependence on government, and benefit from it. the chris christie approach seems to be resonating better. >> cuomo said, i'll give it to you and it will help. it didn't help, that's not the way to go. >> right. stuart: christie came along with a rational plan and fixed the gas line to a degree. >> that's right. stuart: and new at 10 today we will have the latest and final polls on the presidential race, and one of the pollsters who
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side. the conventional polls do show president obama with a very slight lead in some polls, but when it comes to independents and enthusiasm, romney is taking it. we will have a pollster, lee marchingoff from maris college with us shortly. and where is the big board, pretty much flat, ladies and gentlemen. the baseline for the dow this election season is around 13,050. where we start from. here is our company this monday morning, liz macdonald is back to us, charles payne is here for the hour and nicole petallides always there on the floor of the new york stock exchange. all right, netflix, it turned around a little. we followed this stock very, very closely because it's always up and down and the day traders love it. where is it right now? >> well, it's crossed into the green now, so, now with an up arrow after selling off early, the whole idea here surrounding netflix today, stuart, is that the company has adopted the poison pill. that's a technique used by
companies in order to sort of push off a potential takeover or make a company a little more difficult to take over, in this case, when you have an in, the companies, the shareholders can get more shares and dilutes the shares and the acquirer doesn't have the same amount to acquire. and that's what we're seeing here. carl icahn in this case is the one who is showing his feathers here last week when he said that he had acquired a 10% stake in netflix. stuart: we'll take that news on netflix and take a lot of news on netflix and that one, too. by the way, the measure of the manufacturing sector, called the ism index. i'm sorry, it's the service sector and not manufacturing. and came in with a lower reading in the last month compared to the month before, a very slightly lower number. no impact on the market. we're still down 31 points. this is a financial show, oh dorks , we do a lot of politics, because
the markets and politics, and tomorrow's election could have a big impact on the way the stock market goes, right, charles. charles: without a doubt. we know that businesses are holding back, they're intimidated by the rhetoric, obamacare and dodd-frank and a second term where the gloves really come off and we know that these businesses probably would spring back into action. stuart: if we get a romney victory, do you think that the markets, stocks go up sharply. charles: i think that stocks go up. the only problem i would have, expectations being too high too fast. now, there's expectations, too, and theeinitial reaction will be relief and joy and the markets reflect that. stuart: what do you say. >> i agree, 0.04% job growth under the president, that's dismal, the worst since world war ii and barclays is already out saying look and goldman sachs, we could see up to half percentage point knocked off the gdp because of sandy and the fiscal cliff and dismal
recovery. we could be possibly going into a double dip in the fourth quarter. is that reversed it governor romney becomes president? >> yes, do i, short and sweet. stuart: joining us is lee marchingoff for public opinion at maris college. i know your latest poll came out on saturday and it showed president obama with a small lead in virginia, a 2 point lead in florida and a bigger lead in ohio. but i want you to tell us about independents and also, about level of enthusiasm here. first of all, the independents where are they going? >> let me first of all, say in both virginia and florida within the error margin not calling the lead. those could go either way and we do have the edge for obama in ohio. now, on, as far as the independents are concerned, they are narrowly in mitt romney's favor and that's a critical factor when you talk about the fact that all the democrats are
for obama and all the republicans practically for romney and the independents become a critical middle group in there and right now the edge is to mitt romney. stuart: lee, did you say it was among independents, did you say it was a narrow edge to mitt romney? i've got other polls that show what is it, a 6, 7-- >> and in virginia we have it at 5, and in ohio we have it at 4. florida is like 1 or 2 points. so, it's a-- look, we're talking about very, very close states so the answer to the question, what group matters? they all do. and a slight advantage 4 or 5 points among a group could be the tipping point. so in, you know, when the dust settles it may in fact be the independents in a state like virginia that make the difference and florida. charles: lee, how are you doing, charles payne. >> good morning, charles. charles: your poll has come under a lot of criticism for being so heavily weighted towards democrats. everyone is saying, the enthusiasm gap no way in the world the modeling should begin
with the same assumptions of democrats to turn out that they did last time around. what do you think of your critics and why haven't you adjusted for that? >> well, first of all, we don't weight by party, that's just a wrong assumption. parties are variable. if you weighted by party in '08 based on '04, mccain would have won. second of all when we look at party differences ohio is showing to be very democratic, well, obama is ahead in that state. our virginia numbers last time, it was a plus 6 for the democrats and i.d. and now it's only plus 3. so we have the state more republican than it was four years ago and the same in florida. so, frankly, people have targeted the ohio numbers, where they might also target the fact that we're lower on conservatives, and lower on-- i'm sorry, we're higher on conservatives, lower among young people. so, you can't just, you know, target one factor and say, well, the poll is skewed in one way or another. the numbers are right, they were four years ago, we had every battle ground state right. in fact, we even undercounted
obama in each of those states i'm very confident of these numbers. stuart: do you do a poll in pennsylvania? >> no, we haven't polled pennsylvania and i think that's a big wild card in all this. now, it's a little late for romney to get in there there's a huge democratic registration advantage, but you know, ohio may be the exception, not the bellwether this time because of the auto bailout, now, the campaign, romney's campaign decided to go into ohio, not pennsylvania and it may have been better for him to go into pennsylvania even though it's more democratic, he didn't have the auto bailout issue as much, and may have been a mistake. stuart: i just want to concentrate on a second the idea of intensity, the intensity of desire and intention to vote. last night in pennsylvania, in an open field, mitt romney drew, i am told 28,000 people on a very cold night, very enthusiastic crowd. how can you measure that? how can you factor that into your polls? >> well, we do ask about
intensity and inthewes acinthew- enthusiasm and when we talk about it in the battled ground states, mitt romney has an advantage with folks who are enthusiast enthusiastic. stuart: what advantage. >> in florida, 6 points, 81-75, so, his supporters, 81% say they're very enthusiastic, and 75 for the president. stuart: and do you-- yet, it is a big difference, do you factor that into your overall number, your overall polling, for example, florida? >> well, we're just telling you right now those are the numbers, they are not part of the likely voter model. we use interest and interests is it a better barometer, sometimes than enthusiasm, you can only pull the lever once, and you can't pull it hard. and the question is who is toolly going to turn out and the recipe. stuart: yes, it is. >> enthusiasm matters, no doubt about it. stuart: i'm wondering, can you actually account for that in the polling figures na you've
released? can you do. >> yes. stuart: you can do that? >> yes, i'm telling you right now that in florida it's 81-75 among those who are very enthusiastic, so, it is a difference. let me say that romney's getting bigger crowds than mccain got four years ago and obama's getting smaller crowds than he got four years ago. the question is, is there a big enough difference to cross the election? who ultimately will have the electoral vote advantage when it's done. stuart: i'm asking every one of our guests to call it now, who wins tomorrow? >> well, i'll put it at 277 bomb obama-261, romney with iowa, ohio wisconsin going obama's way in bat ground states and romney carrying florida,virginia, colorado, north carolina and virginia, new hampshire. and if pennsylvania surprises, that will be a-- that just scuttles the numbers and changes who is going be taking the oath of office.
stuart: as of now you're calling it for obama, right. >> 277-261, but these states are very, very close, margin of error was created and copyrighted by a pollster to give all the cover in the world we need. stuart: we've had three guests on the show this morning, one has called it directly for romney, another said it's a tie and you have called it for obama, so we're sort of running the field, that's interesting. >> that's exactly what it is, there's an outcome for every possibility. stuart: lee, thank you for being with us. >> stuart, have a great day. stuart: liz, i'm sorry you wanted a point in there. >> i wanted to see if he was tracking specifically the evangelical vote because that's the wild card that seems not to have opinion picked up. stuart: that was dan henninger's point. he made the point about ohio it could be the evangelicals, vigorously for mitt romney who could swing ohio. charles: i think he had the line of the day so far. you can pull a lever hard, but only counts once. stuart: that's true. stuart: by the way, everybody,
you will get two servings of "varney & company" tomorrow. we'll go at our normal time 9:20 eastern in the morning and then we'll be back an election special, 5 p.m. eastern, tomorrow afternoon on election day. all right, nicole, we just heard from generac's chief and he said romney would be better for business and now the stock has seen another high. where is it now? >> there's no hotter commodity than generators through hurricane sandy and we've seen the stock reflecting exactly that demand that has obviously been pent up. so, here is a look at generac today. up more than 5%, last week it gained over 20% in trading, hitting new high after new high, so, people are getting in there and some people may even begin to buy generators ahead of the next storm of potential power outages, it's the thing about generac generators, they can transition seamlessly. >> the energy department just stayed 1.37 million people homes, i believe, are without power in the northeast. so, there's the market for
generac, i guess. nicole, thank you very much indeed. dow is down 42 points. anything to add about my comment that generac is the rolls-royce of generators, charles? you want to come back and think mack daddy or something. charles: well, you know, trends across atlantic view of things, but i think mostly the same thing. stuart: what expression did you use. charles: mack daddy. stuart: mack daddy. let's look at how newspapers across the country are responding to the presidential election, and who they are supporting. for the president is the new york times, los angeles times, washington post, big papers, left leaning, big city papers, all for obama. for romney, the tampa tribune, the tennessean, and the detroit news. and lots of other smaller newspapers, too, and several major newspapers that endorse president obama in 2008, now support governor romney. the florida sun sentinel and fort worth star telegraph along with the new york daily news and
the houston chronicle. and that seems to me like there's a split here between the big name establishment big city papers and smaller towns. obama-romney? >> essentially what you're seeing the wisconsin state journal also now endorsing romney, basically saying this is now president obama's economy. he only had two signature pieces of legislation that may have hung up the economy, that being dodd-frank and obamacare. so, you know, is that the way to go for the next four years. stuart: interesting. >> what the papers are interesting. stuart: that's interesting. charles: i'm telling you that new york daily news endorsement and i read that thing, amazing because it focused specifically on new york and new york city and you hadn't it heard this a lot of people live in the town and knee jerk vote democrat are suffering the most, it's almost, it's crazy and why do you automatically vote for the same person even though your plight is the worst in the world. >> and your argument, your point about sandy, this is no longer about fixing the economy the buffett rule it's the sandy rule
no longer the big nanny way to go. and ban big guzzlers, and breast-feeding, formulas, and we've got a bad situation in the country and by the way. i don't think that mars wobbles, caused hurricanes, and i do think that the glaciers are melting, that's a big problem so we've got to have a government that responds, national and economic security and henning the families devastated. stuart: one more for you, this is the financial times. obama is the wiser bet for crisis hit u.s., comes out of london and there remains a need for intelligent reformist governance says ft, that's obama. >> i read ft and the economist for the other viewpoint. they have some intelligent stuff in there, but for a political angle i also dismiss it, people should read those with a filter. >> i agree. stuart: gun sales surging over fears that president obama will
win a second term and hurricane sandy. and making a case for 2nd amendment and signs popping up, warning that looters will be shot on sight. the the judge is next, his response to signs like this after the break. you see us, at the start of the day. on the company phone list that's a few names longer. you see us bank on busier highways. on once empty fields. everyday you see all the ways all of us at us bank are helping grow our economy. lending more so companies and communities can expand, grow stronger and get back to work. everyday you see all of us serving you, around the country, around the corner. us bank.
and down slightly. the dow is off 40 points. we got a reading for the service sector, ism nonmanufacturing index and slightly lower in october compared to september. and then we're back on the market. we want to show you gold. way down recently and the dow is up 8 bucks, but well below $17 an ounce. oil right now hovering around at $85 a barrel. and gas prices continuing to fall. 3.47 is the national average for regular and that's only the national average, by the way. here in new york, metropolitan area, prices have been spiking, if you can find a station with gas that is. the shortage seems to have gotten more relieved over the weekend, but still, we've got long lines to fill up your tank. all right, everybody. 90 seconds from now you'll be hearing the judge. is hurricane sandy providing a factor in favor of the 2nd amendment? you bet it is. bob...
can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean rac no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners. >> even some devastated new jersey shore towns are fearful of looters. look at the sign in front of thomas river, new jersey "quote, house is occupied, owner is legally armed", this one in new jersey is more direct clearly "looters will be shot, bodies thrown in river" all rise, judge andrew napolitano is here. all right, judge, do you approve of such signs? >> if you-- if you wouldn't mind allowing me to change the question, does the constitution approve of such signs, the answer is yes. the question of first amendment,
free speech and the 2nd amendment, the right of people to keep and bear arms. the first amendment, it's not a direct threat, it doesn't harass or threaten a particular individual and doesn't suggest a crime should be committed. it's clearly protected speech. it's a little startling in to see admittedly. when your producer sent it this morning, it's startling. stuart: is it enough, a startling sign? >> correct now the question becomes, can you use this sign? >> i want to know this. i'm inside my own house, i've got a legally registered firearm. and it is loaded. >> yes. stuart: somebody comes up to the the door and i think. >> now. stuart: in what circumstances can i shoot them? >> the person has to pose a threat using deadly force. stuart: in whose judgment? >> in your judgment. in order for you to use deadly force, you can't shoot someone because they knock on the front door or unscrewing a light bulb from the front of your house.
you could use the gun to deter them from knocking on the front door or unscrewing the light bulb, but you couldn't shoot, couldn't pull the trigger. you can pull the trigger if they have a gun, if they have some other means of deadly-- >> a knife, position, a baseball bat, that's legit. >> yes, if they enter the plane of the house and force through the front door, you can use force to repel them because deadly force can consist of a person's fists or a person's body. >> they may not be shot on the doorstep, but inside the door they can be shot. >> yes. charles: but this feels like it changes from state to state. there was a case a guy was trick-or-treating and he was shot and the person who killed him was exonerated. >> and here is the difference, a great question n some states the test is, subjective. what did the home owner actually think. in some states, the test is objective, what would a reasonable person, not that home owner, but a reasonable person knowing what that home owner
knew think. so, in cases where it's what did he actually think, the home owner usually wins. in cases where what would a reasonable person have thought. stuart: it seems the constitution allows the right to bear arms, gives us the right to bear arms precisely for this reason. your life and property. >> you're correct. in a recent case, heller versus the district of columbia, the supreme court said just exactly that. we're the not talking about on a public street, not talking downtown, we're talking about on your property in your house. >> but not in your. >> not in your car, that would vary from state to state. what does vary on your property, in the house as long as the gun is lawfully owned. stuart: you're clear and your clarity we like. >> it's easy to be clear if you agree with the law. and stuart, trying to make sense. >> did you just have a helium balloon that you just--
>> that's her majesty. >> and quiet on the set, please? i want you to call the election tomorrow, who wins, not who do you want to win, who wins? >> romney. stuart: charles. charles: romney. >> liz, a toss up to the the wire. stuart: don't hedge. >> obama. stuart: okay. and now we know where we all stand, don't we, liz. >> i'm not saying that-- >> see you in the morning. stuart: thank you, judge. >> and i'll see you tomorrow night, i hear, a special. stuart: don't forget 5 p.m. eastern, double duty with the judge tomorrow, he'll be on. a nice extra promo you got in there. >> the little things i do for you. stuart: and it's a most critical election in a generation, my take on europe, socialism and the choice voters face tomorrow. that's next. sometimes investg opportunities are hard to spot. you have to dig a little. fidety's etf market tracker shows you the big picture
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>> you can see the model for progress what has been working and not been working within the tax regimes of our states, you have states like florida that continue to do better and states like california that are now threatened with the exact same spending problems that we've seen in washington. stuart: well, that was travis brown in our last hour, warning of another four more years. remember to tune in sharp 9:20 for all of "varney & company." i want to give you the latest
rasmussen report. i'm going to repeat this because this is the daily presidential tracking poll released moments ago. this is very important because it's the latest poll available. president obama 48-romney 49. and that suggests that at this very late hour, literally on election eve. there may be some momentum returning to mitt romney. not sure about that, but it's 49-48 romney in a rasmussen poll. let's go to apple, i think they're what, ten bucks higher, nicole. >> it's off the highs and still doing well with an up arrow. it turns out the weekend was really successful for apple and ipads, including the ipad mini where tim cook, the ceo noted that the initial iman exceeded the original supply and they're boosting production and in order to meet the demand and it was a record launch weekend, et cetera, et cetera. stuart: okay. >> so you knew that, you now that apple spiel and so far--
>> it was up ten bucks earlier and now less than six. and nicole, thank you very much indeed. california we've said it many times, just doesn't get it. the businesses fleeing the state and deficits exploding still. and californias will vote for democrats and vote almost certainly for yet, higher taxes. chairman of the california republican party joins the company a little later. has he lots faith in his state? tom dell beccaro tells us. a few points on this election eve i'll tell you about the europe i left 40 years ago, i think it's relevant for the the choices we are making in america tomorrow. my take on europe then and america now. i left england in the early 1970's, at that time railroads, airlines, mining, utilities, health care, car production, all nationalized.
that is run entirely by the government. trucking, bus lines, and pharmaceuticals, all dominated by the government. intense regulations, stifle just about everything and of course, most industries were heavily unionized. it was an economically stagnant society. the social class you were born into played a very big role in what you did with your life. religion was in rapid retreat and standards of public behavior had fallen way below what you would consider classic english restraint. the socialist society, with a pagan culture. i left. the america that i came to, well, quite simply, it astonished me. i settled in san francisco, people worked, they worked hard. they worked long. they made tons of money. and they kept most of it. and were proud, proud of their financial success. and there was no class system, certainly nothing that would hold you back. my first employer didn't care where i came from, or who my parents were. i had to work for three months
for free to show them i could do the job. and when i showed them i could do it i was in. wow, that was a revelation, right from the get-go, i loved it, i still do which brings me to this election. i don't want america to be like europe. i don't want to go back. do you? all energy development comes with some risk,
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>> boeing 787 dreamliner has been delayed coming off the assembly line, but united airlines first commercial flight of the dreamliner landed in chicago's o'hare airport from houston, 15 minutes ahead of schedule. and it's united the first to get the dreamliner. and now, here is mitt romney from orlando, criticizing president obama's policies. >> the question really comes down to this. do the people of america want four more years like the last four years, or-- or do you want real change finally? finally? >> one more day. >> all right. went on from there. and brian is with us, a washington analyst.
brian, welcome to the program. >> good morning, stuart. stuart: now, throughout this campaign, governor romney has been outlining the failures of president obama's economic policies, the relative failings. i want to know why is it that governor romney is not winning by a much larger margin, given the president's economic record? >> i think it's two things, one is that the obama response has been to link mitt romney to the policies of george w. bush and people are still concerned about how we got into the financial crisis and romney has done a very poor job, almost really no job at all to refute those and show why he would be different than george w. bush. he tried to in the second debate, a little opportunity there, but never followed up and i think it's a failure on the romney part. the other is the other obama impact the bain attack, to make obama look like some heartless, robber baron capitalist who is going to ship your job overseas, and i think these have been very effective attacks, the romney
people responded to some degree, but not enough. stuart: so you think that the economy is still issue number one, but president obama has been able to side step his record in some way and divert attention. but the bottom line question, is the economy still number one? i remember in the clinton campaign, it's the economy stupid. do you think it still is the economy? >> no doubt in my mind it's still the economy and the two people around america wherever they are who are still undecided they will decide on the economy in the next couple of days and that's where romney's opportunity is, because things are not that great and we're just kind of muddling along. it's not awful, but there's not a lot of opportunity, optimism on hope going forward. stuart: and we feel like europe, liz. >> yeah, and how much-- it's liz macdonald here. how much is the media to blame here for in the explaining mr. romney's message because i've got to tell you something, in 2000--
the early part of the last decade, senator obama backed legislation in the state of illinois to bring private equity and venture capital money into the state of illinois. how much is the media to blame here? >> to some extent. it's romney's problem. if the media is not here to do the job-- >> i'm not saying that. aim he saying to do fair and balanced reporting. but the media, if you think the media is biased, the medias always has been biased against republicans. ronald reagan faced more than mitt romney. you have to stay ahead of them and they have failed to do that. stuart: okay, let's talk about the poll this morning from rasmussen, 49-48 for governor romney. let's talk about the enthusiasm we've seen among the crowds, especially last night in pennsylvania, which i thought was really striking.
i think maybe you're underestimating romney's showing. i think he'll show much better than the dead heat polls or some of the polls actually suggest. am i right? >> oh, well, you could be very right on this, stuart. i mean, we've gone back and looked over the last nine election cycles, going to ohio, for a second. the republican candidate in-- has outperformed in ohio compared to his national vote, gotten a larger share in ohio than he's done nationally. so, i think the polls are maybe missing a little something in ohio. and i think polls generally, just by a very small fraction, but in a tight race this matters, underestimate republican strength. they did in '08. they could again. i think he can still pull this out. i think it's that close. stuart: i that's what i want. i've asked every guest, not who you'd like to win, who do you think will win. >> i still think it's obama, i've been saying it for the
get-go. i don't think there's a 70, 85% chance that he wins. this is a 55-45 race going into tomorrow and it can change overnight. stuart: you're calling it for president obama. >> as of right now, yes, i am. subject to change, stuart. stuart: all right. brian, kew, thank you very much indeed. stuart: virtually all polls are showing a dead heat in tomorrow's election and it's a tossup and we've got a democrat congressman next. he loves risk. but whether he's climbing everest, scuba diving the great barrier reef with sharks, or jumping into the marke he goes with people he trusts, which is why he trades with a company that doesn't nickel and dime him with hidden fees. so he can worry about other things, like what the market is doing and being ready, no matter what happens, which isn't cket science. it's just common sense, from td ameritrade.
. stuart: icht i've got two big name stocks we follow closely on "varney & company," apple, 3 million ipads sold over the weekend. doesn't say how many were the new ipad mini. we know that people were lined up for those, even in hurricane devastated new york. and as for netflix, that stock is up about a buck today. and what netflix did, it's put in some measures to prevent a takeover. this comes after investor carl icahn bought a stake in netflix, it's just a buck. right now the dow industrials are going nowhere, this is election eve. don't expect any big moves in the market until we find out who will win the election. all right, everybody, we're coming back in 90 seconds with democratic congressman peter welch. i want a reaction to my take, do we want europe? do we want america?
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t. ro price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. >> this is the first of three straight days of huge protests in greece. doctors, journalists and others on strike today. tomorrow, will be a general strike, all government workers out. that means no public services, including transportation is coming before the government has to vote, whether to accept severe austerity measures, if it doesn't accept them that could set greece on a path to exit. but we've been on the path before.
i think that toyota is still sharply higher why? >> a they've been on the rise and cutting costs and china offset the weak demand they've been seeing in china and with the numbers and raising this, it's an important part, raising the outlook. so that's good as well for toyota and that's why you see it as a clear winner here. stuart: nicole, thank you very much indeed. joining us now is congressman peter welch, a democrat from vermont. congressman welcome to the program. always good to have you back, sir. thank you. >> thank you. stuart: earlier today i was saying that this is a pivotal election of extreme importance because in my view, it's which direction america wants to go in. i think that under president obama we're headed toward a more european style society, a lot more government. i personally want to go back to the america of free enterprise and american exceptionalism.
do you think it's a stark a contrast as that? >> well, it is a stark contrast, the vision of governor romney and president obama is quite different. i don't think it's as extreme as you say, and we'll see, the verdict will be in tomorrow. whoever wins it will be tight. we know that. i'll go out on a limb as a democrat and predict president obama. and whoever wins will have a divided house and senate and the big challenge for folks like me, are we going to be able to be functional and start moving in a good direction that's going to make america stronger and i think the markets r react. stuart: i understand, but you see my point where i'm coming from. i'm an immigrant and i came to america nearly 40 years ago and came from essentially style socialism and i see the same thing happening here now, that i walked away from all those years ago. more and more government. higher and higher taxes, more and more regulation. government intrusion into every aspect of the economy.
you see that, too? don't you? >> well, no, here is what i see. and it's not that stark, i don't think. but we've got to get more productive we've got to have more opportunities for the middle class. the best, the best social program is a good job. there's a lot of agreement on that. how do you do it? now-- >> well, congressman, surely, but my experience, my experience, congressmaa, is that government does not create a free enterprise dynamic system that hires people and creates jobs. it does not. can you show me a single example, show me an example where the government, government action, a vibrant middle class of prosperity and expansion. >> it's not that -- it's not the job of government to create jobs, it's to be a partner with private enterprise. stuart: that's what president obama is doing and has done. >> to create jobs-- you know, that's actually in my view not quite right. you have to have infrastructure.
there are governmental projects that are required in order to provide that infrastructure that we need. like, we need broadband expansion here in the states, but we've got to have governmental policies to help do that and we need roads and bridges to be repaired. there's got to be restraint, it's not government doing everything and government can't create a vibrant private sector, but it can be helpful or an impediment. it's a question of what policies work and what don't. stuart: surely. at the moment, sir, of president obama is an impediment on private enterprise. it's an impediment. dodd-frank and reform and back to the financial system, obamacare restricts one's percentage of the american economy. >> here on the banks-- the american people are going to weigh in on your opinion and mine tomorrow. so we'll see what the majority feels about it. but dodd-frank is an example. the big banks really went wild and caused an enormous amount of harm. private sector action caused an immense amount of economic pain. dodd-frank should be adjusted so
we build up our small banks. >> all right, sir. >> and have not have them burdened. >> go on, liz. >> the president is not really running on dodd-frank, he's unable to run on his record and conducting this reelection campaign that's attacking mitt romney personally. and if tax and spend the way to go, why is california's unemployment rate upwards of 10% and worse than the national average? >> well, under obama it hasn't been tax and spend. >> i'm asking for the state of california, i'm sorry, sir, for the state of california. i beg your pardon for the state of california. >> well, i actually-- yeah, i know now the deal in california and they've got constitutional restrictions making it difficult to make adjustments and don't know enough about it to speak. stuart: well, president obama wants in a second-- president obama wants to raise taxes, raise taxes under obamacare, raise taxes on income tax, raise taxes across-- huge tax increases coming down the pike in a second obama term and he's going to spend that money which he doesn't actually
have. this is tax and spend law in a second term. >> well, actually, actually what the president is talking about is the balanced approach to deficit reduction, af got the transcript of his interview with the des moines register and what he was talking about was $2.50 of cuts for every dollar of revenue, in my view, and a lot of republicans agree with me, if we have a balanced approach, the pentagon makes a contribution, domestic discretionary entitlements reform is part of the evasion and revenues are part of the equation. when i talk to business folks they say look, we've got to see you moving in a direction that's going to bring the trajectory of that debt down. and if it's slow and steady, that's going to be good for the economy. that's what they need to see and and who gets elected. we've got to be more functional. stuart: the president's own budget plan is filled with 20 trillion dollars in 2016. i want to end a prediction, you
say president obama wins a second tefrm. can you tell me the points spread. >> no, consistent. i think it will be tight, tight, tight. he's persistently held a lead in ohio and why you see governor romney going to pennsylvania, looking for a hail mary pass. stuart: a hail mary, that was hail mary, an interesting hail mary with 28,000 cheering people. congressman peter welch, democrat vermont. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. stuart: businesses are indeed leaving california in droves. the state is virtually bankrupt, say insolvent. still, voters will elect democrats and even vote for higher taxes. does the republican there have any chance? do they still exist in california? will california finally understand reality?
>> we know california is it a very liberal state. heavily democratic. in 2008 president obama won that state by 24 points. his margin of victory could be thinner this time? ah, but californians are likely to vote to raise their own taxes again, the latest poll shows 48% show tax increases, 38% oppose. joining us now is tom del
bacarro. he's the head of the california republican party i'm told it does exist. i'm sorry, tom, i know you should be facetious like this. >> stuart, we keep going over this, we've turned down the last eight state-wide tax increases. stuart: air not going to turn this down. this time you're going to raise taxes and the state is bankrupt, hemorrhaging jobs. you guys in california, i'm not blaming you, but your party is virtually irrelevant in the state of california. >> we've turned down eight straight state-wide tax increases and this is going to be the 9th and turned down a tobacco tax in june and the poll we call the left field bol. that estimates constantly on issues like this, so i fully expect californians to do what they did in june, turn down another tax and even in a democratic city, shows that retroactive pension reform is going to pass by single digits and passed by 38. so i think this is going to go the way of the rest of it.
stuart: hope springs eternal. now, a 24 point victory for president obama in 2008. how big will his victory be in 2012? i'm not being facetious, go ahead. >> no, i think it will be just over double digits, so, i think it might be 11, 12, 13. you know, i saw rasmussen and i can't imagine disagreeing with scott. i see this as a, as a sizable romney victory and i still see it in the 5 to 6 range, i think you've got to go by, take pennsylvania yesterday. there's 4,000 people who didn't even get in yesterday to that event. and you go to ohio and obama's barely attracting 2800 people. biden is barely attracting people so i see a sizable victory that will help nuus in california, the bad mood out of the east results in less votesers in california that evening. stuart: one last one, only got 20 seconds left. when, if president obama wins a second term, do you think that california will be immediately asking for a bailout?
>> i do. and i think that california economy will look even more and the national economy is it in for a bad thing if he wins not only because foreign policy will hurt him, but his quantitative easing will hurt the market. we're in for a bad stretch if that guy wins and i don't think he is. stuart: tom, thank you for joining us, we appreciate it. and the highlight reel is next. bob...
oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're bh running a nice, clean race. no ed to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners.
stuart: all right, everybody. here it is. the highlight reel. >> i want you to call the election. >> i will stay with the redskins forecast. i think there will be a change. >> it is romney. >> it is obama. >> romney. stuart: charles. >> romney. stuart: liz. >> obama. stuart: margin of error was created by a pollster to give all